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    周維槿:加息前金銀震蕩等待終極審判,12月14日現貨

    2017-11-29 15:14:15 作者:admin 點擊:

    本周貴金屬市場稍顯風平浪靜,不過在美聯儲針對加息日程逐步提上里程表下,在下周美聯儲決議來臨之際,市場針對加息論的發酵依舊持續,本周現貨白銀價格震蕩收跌,回吐上周全部漲幅。而本周出爐的美國數據相對比較樂觀,核心零售銷售月率表現搶眼,11份PPI月率同樣表現不錯,再次給美聯儲下周加息提供數據支撐。因美聯儲下周加息基本美元太大懸念,市場焦點開始轉向加息進程和通脹預期,也限制了白銀的短線上行空間,美指繼續回落緩解了金銀價的下行壓力,不過油價暴跌對金銀價形成拖累。

      周維槿:加息前金銀震蕩等待終極審判,12月14日現貨白銀行情預測

      因美股和商品價格重挫,本周美元指數下跌0.75%,最低觸及97.21,創一個新低;而現貨白銀/黃金陸續刷新新低,現貨白銀(西夏銀)報價最低觸及2852元/kg,收盤價2886元/kg,黃金價格最低觸及1062.4美元/盎司,收盤價1074.13美元/盎司;目前市場上都在等待美聯儲下周的“加息盛會”,歐元于英鎊則因美元的回落及歐洲央行官員的講話雙雙創數周新高,油價的暴跌則使美元兌加元創十一年新高,人民幣自加入SDR后持續貶值至四年新低。

      本周貴金屬市場稍顯風平浪靜,不過在美聯儲針對加息日程逐步提上里程表下,在下周美聯儲決議來臨之際,市場針對加息論的發酵依舊持續,本周現貨白銀價格震蕩收跌,回吐上周全部漲幅;而本周出爐的美國數據相對比較樂觀,核心零售銷售月率表現搶眼,11份PPI月率同樣表現不錯,再次給美聯儲下周加息提供數據支撐;美國上周初請失業金人數則出現了小幅增長,11月進口物價指數月率同樣小幅下滑,一年期通脹預期及美國密歇根消費者信心指數表現不及預期,稍微緩解了金銀的下行壓力,不過基本屬于正常波動。因美聯儲下周加息基本美元太大懸念,市場焦點開始轉向加息進程和通脹預期,也限制了白銀的短線上行空間,美指繼續回落緩解了金銀價的下行壓力,不過油價暴跌對金銀價形成拖累。此外,下周黃金將迎來美聯儲議息會議的終極審判。現貨白銀的表現則弱于黃金,盤中一度刷新2009年7月以來低點至13.75美元/盎司(西夏銀報價2852元/kg),本周累計下跌逾4%,回吐了上漲全部漲幅。

      現貨白銀:本周銀震蕩回落,價格回吐上周五的全部漲幅空間,周線上收報一根帶上下引線的長陰K,短期價格再次回歸弱勢態勢發展,周線圖上價格在略微下滑的布林中下軌之間發展,價格反彈首要受制中軌及粘合均線壓制帶,5/10日均線死叉下穿短期其他均線發展,下行在前期低點附近受益首要支撐,附圖指標上價格維持弱勢結構調整,短期存在進一步回落下滑的風險需留意下方支撐的有效性;日線圖上銀價在跌落中軌及均線密集支撐帶后拓展空間下滑,短期測試布林下軌支撐后小幅反彈,周期內價格在當前收縮的布林通道中下軌之間發展,上行受制中軌及均線密集粘合帶,趨向指標上價格在反彈回升后出現高位回落的調整節奏,中短周期有進一步回落的風險存在,下周初首要關注下行2860首要支撐的力度,跌落則將測試前期低點2830附近,反彈首要關注2920/2950壓力位,操作上建議反彈做空為主,同時留意低位買點的出現。

      現貨白銀(下周一12月14日)參考操作建議:

      1、白銀價格觸及2940-2950附近做空,止損2975,目標2900-2880;

      2、白銀價格觸及2850-2860附近輕倉做多,止損2830,目標2900-2910;

      【下周12月14-18日市場熱點前瞻】

      紛紛擾擾幾時休,情情愛愛繞心頭,臨近年底,本周的匯市并不平靜,下周又將是一個超級周,首先是澳洲聯儲公布12月貨幣政策會議紀要,然后歐美各國將會出爐11月份CPI數據,隨后便是舉世矚目的美聯儲“加息盛會”及利率決議,會后美聯儲主席耶倫將出席新聞發布會并發表講話,此外,日本央行還將公布利率決議。

      下周如果美聯儲如期加息,投資者需要重點留意利率決議和耶倫的措辭變化,尤其是明年的加息進程及通脹預期,謹防出現鴿派措辭掀起匯市巨大波瀾,料下周的匯市乃至整個金融市場都不會平靜。

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