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    股災反思:期指存在制度缺陷

    2017-11-20 09:51:25 作者:admin 點擊:

    而期指交易不需要交收實物,是現金交割,尤其在網絡及計算機技術高度發達的今天,往往可以在現貨期指多重市場同時做空,而不是套保。行業分析師很難推薦個股,因為齊漲齊跌,因為納入了所謂的中證500ETF,如果對應的中證500期指大幅下跌,那么個股不論好壞一起下挫甚至一起跌停。因為對期指交易者而言,不會考慮500只股票中哪個好哪個壞,哪個有泡沫哪個有價值,期指交易只把500只股票當作一個標的物,甚至作為一個賭注下單。因為不能讓小眾市場,小額資金來誤導證券交易市場明天的方向。其他金融機構不能直接設立為股票市場的融資產品,凡是特許經營的其它準金融機構也不例外,其余機構行為則視為非法。

      股指期貨的影響力大風險大,還在于它和商品期貨不一樣。商品期貨本質上才是真正的套期保值,包括所謂的價值發現,因為其最終是實物交割,投機盤只是過路客。而期指交易不需要交收實物,是現金交割,尤其在網絡及計算機技術高度發達的今天,往往可以在現貨期指多重市場同時做空,而不是套保。

      現在,行業分析師很難推薦個股,因為齊漲齊跌,因為納入了所謂的中證500ETF,如果對應的中證500期指大幅下跌,那么個股不論好壞一起下挫甚至一起跌停。因為對期指交易者而言,不會考慮500只股票中哪個好哪個壞,哪個有泡沫哪個有價值,期指交易只把500只股票當作一個標的物,甚至作為一個賭注下單。為此建議:

      一、期指品種的交收要和目前股票現貨市場一樣T+1(衍生產品,從實盤而來);

      二、按交割期逐漸提高持倉保證金比例;

      三、為維護已經開設的股指期貨,建議只保留上證50期指,因為基本是大盤藍籌股;

      四、期指交易時間和股市交易時間一致;

      五、如果交易時間仍維持在現貨盤后15分鐘休市,建議期指如果貼水超過2%,當日強行交割。因為不能讓小眾市場,小額資金來誤導證券交易市場明天的方向;

      六、證券市場融資渠道應歸券商一家所有,按不同評級從1:0.5到1:1為上限。其他金融機構不能直接設立為股票市場的融資產品,凡是特許經營的其它準金融機構也不例外,其余機構行為則視為非法;

      七、對于對股票的做空,建議以設定一定比例的融券為主,這樣看空就是單一的,做空就是點對點的,而不是采用500只股票整體有價值或整體有泡沫來判斷,甚至對高頻交易而言,一分鐘前看空500只股票,一分鐘后同時看好這500只股票,再一分鐘后又同時看空這500只股票.....這對現貨交易者顯然是不公平的。(本文作者系上海交通大學多層次資本主場研究所所長)

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