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    美聯儲今年最后決議或加息之外還有驚喜,金價后市堪憂

    2018-10-30 13:34:57 作者:admin 點擊:

    據CME美聯儲觀察最新數據,美聯儲今年12月加息25個基點至2 25%-2 5%區間的概率為65 8%。雖然市場長期以來一直預期,美聯儲將在今年聯邦公開

    據CME“美聯儲觀察”最新數據,美聯儲今年12月加息25個基點至2.25%-2.5%區間的概率為65.8%。雖然市場長期以來一直預期,美聯儲將在今年聯邦公開市場委員會(fomc)最后一次會議上,將基準利率上調25個基點(0.25個百分點),然而,市場分析人士認為,美聯儲在聯邦公開市場委員會最后一次會議上不僅僅是加息,還將批準另一項調整措施,以確保當前的政策路徑順利推進。

    美聯儲可能不得不對加息方式進行重要調整


    美國財政部預計在今年第四季度發放4250億美元的凈適銷債務,較此前預期少150億美元,預計在2019年第一季度發放3560億美元的凈適銷債務,第三季度發放了3530億美元的凈適銷債務。


    盡管沒有跡象表明美聯儲正在考慮停止削減資產負債表規模,但是,如果美聯儲無法控制其基準利率的范圍,那可能會導致其停止對資產負債表的平倉,資產負債表由美聯儲購買的債券組成,這些債券旨在降低抵押貸款利率并刺激經濟,對經濟和市場的影響是巨大的


    在正常情況下,這一舉措將伴隨著美聯儲支付銀行超額準備金利率(IOER)相應的25個基點的加息。目前的利率為2.2%,而基金利率為2%-2.25%。


    然而,基金利率已經上升到其區間的上限,達到2.2%,與銀行超額準備金利率(IOER)持平,這帶來了一個問題。


    美聯儲使用銀行超額準備金利率(IOER)來指導基金利率,通常作為基金利率的下限。美聯儲通過準備金利率和隔夜回購安排(隔夜回購安排)來管理其基金利率,這也有助于美聯儲設定利率下限。


    今年,隨著政府債券發行大幅增加,美聯儲購買回購債券的利率也有所上升,基金利率已跌至目標區間的上限


    早在今年6月,美聯儲就解決了這個問題,將IOER利率提高了20個基點,試圖將聯邦基金利率進一步推高至區間中心。這在幾個月里起了作用,但這兩種利率已經越來越接近,并在10月23日達到2.2%的水平。

    美聯儲定量緊縮的“QT”


    凱投宏觀資深美國經濟學家邁克爾·皮爾斯(MichaelPearce)表示,美聯儲在目標區間的上限“失去了對利率的控制”。盡管只要美聯儲能夠再次將基金利率控制在中間區間,“這一切對美聯儲來說都不算太麻煩”,但持續的壓力可能會導致政策變化


    Pearce在報告中稱,“由于外匯儲備充裕,有效基金利率不太可能升穿IOER的水準,然而,如果美聯儲真的這么做了,它可能會得出這樣的結論:流動性過剩的程度低于此前的預期,因此,美聯儲的定量緊縮政策將過早結束。”


    重要的是,美聯儲官員在聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)上次會議的會議紀要中指出,聯邦基金利率的上升似乎并非源于儲備不足,這將更加令人不安。美聯儲將每月允許500億美元的美國國債和抵押貸款支持證券流出資產負債表,以努力將債券投資組合從4.5萬億美元的峰值(目前為4.2萬億美元)減少。


    有跡象顯示,中國央行正在收緊貨幣政策,并對利率施加壓力,這可能會促使中國央行放松資產負債表上的減支措施。


    在美聯儲是否應繼續加息并縮減資產負債表的問題上面臨越來越多的審查,市場已將這個過程稱為定量緊縮的“QT”


    銀行分析師迪克·博夫(DickBove)表示,美國總統唐納德·特朗普多次尖銳批評美聯儲加息,美聯儲“正在給經濟強加一個新的僵化的金融體系”。


    不過,FOMC在9月份的會議紀要中指出,迄今為止,資產負債表計劃引發了“溫和”的市場反應。不過,這種情況是否會持續下去,可能取決于IOER和基金利率之間的關系。

    金價后市或將處境不佳


    花旗集團經濟學家AndrewHollenhorst表示,他甚至對美聯儲是否可能在11月6-7日的FOMC會議上將IOER利率降至2.15%提出質疑,以進一步收緊聯邦基金利率。


    AndrewHollenhorst表示:“在政策正常化的過程中,將一個關鍵政策利率下調5個基點的做法存在明顯的缺陷。因此,我們認為,除非(聯邦基金利率)超過2.25%(在我們看來,不太可能),否則11月份降息5個基點的可能性不大。”


    周一(10月29日),美元因加息前景走強,金價從上日觸及的逾三個月峰值回落,RJOFutures高級市場策略師BobHaberkorn表示,由于利率上升的前景,轉向安全資產的資金不會流向黃金,而是流向美元。

    法國巴黎銀行的HarryTchilinguirian指出,利好因素將會被美國經濟力道和美元的漲勢所抵消,盡管股市挫跌但美元仍舊上揚,并且美國還要升息幾次,他預計明年金價將可能下跌


    外媒根據對39位分析師和交易員的調查結果顯示,銀行和券商在8月金價跌至19個月低位后,已經下調了今年和2019年的平均金價預測。

    注意:上述資料不應被視為金融市場上投資建議或指導性意見,僅作為閱讀參考使用。金融交易有風險,投資需謹慎。

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