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    多重利空壓頂,油價難改跌勢逼近66關口

    2018-10-25 17:42:47 作者:admin 點擊:

    周四(10月25日)亞市盤初,現貨黃金小幅上漲,一度刷新兩日高點至1237 98美元 盎司,劇烈本周稍早觸及的近三個月高點也相去不遠,盡管美元指

    周四(10月25日)亞市盤初,現貨黃金小幅上漲,一度刷新兩日高點至1237.98美元/盎司,劇烈本周稍早觸及的近三個月高點也相去不遠,盡管美元指數仍位于隔夜創下的近兩個月高點附近,但全球股市大幅下跌仍給金價提供支撐,技術面看漲信號仍在,金價有望延續漲勢。

    ★基本面消息

    ①歐美股市全線收跌,亞股尾隨其后


    美國股市周三(10月24日)收盤重挫;納斯達克指數跌創五個半月新低,確認進入修正區域;道指和標普500指數悉數回吐年內漲幅,收盤創三個半月新低;因芯片生產商公布的財測令人失望,且新屋銷售數據疲弱,引發對經濟和企業獲利增長的擔憂。具體數據顯示,道瓊工業指數收盤2.41%,創;標普500指數重挫3.09%;納斯達克指數暴跌4.43%,為2011年8月18日以來最大單日百分比跌幅。


    歐洲股市周三也延續跌勢,泛歐STOXX600指數下跌0.2%,至22個月新低,為連續第六個交易日下挫,德股DAX指數收跌0.7%創近兩年新低,法國CAC40指數收跌0.30%創一年半新低。


    亞洲股市周四尾隨歐美股市跌勢,截止8:45,日經225指數一度跌逾3%,創半年新低;南韓綜合指數開盤跳空逾2%,創兩年半新低。


    小編提醒,全球股市的走弱,再度提升了黃金的避險需求,有望幫助金價繼續沖高。


    ②上一交易日歐美經濟數據相對疲軟


    據觀察,美國9月新屋銷售跌至近兩年低位,因房貸利率和房價上升;美國商務部公布,上月新屋銷售經季節性因素調整后年率為55.3萬戶,下降5.5%,這是自2016年12月以來的最低水平。8月銷售年率從之前報告的62.9萬戶下修至58.5萬戶,新屋銷售已經連續四個月下降。


    樓市表現不及經濟強勁,分析師將低迷歸咎于房貸利率上升和房價上漲,兩者的升幅均已經超過了工資的增長,使得一些首次購房者負擔不起。


    歐元區方面,歐元區10月制造業PMI錄得26個月最低水平;德國民間部門增長步伐放緩至逾三年最慢,法國制造業PMI也觸及25個月低位。


    匯通網提醒,這些經濟數據暗示全球經濟發展可能會放緩腳步,尤其是歐洲央行收緊貨幣政策的步伐可能會放緩,則有助于降低持有黃金的機會成本,部分利好金價。


    ③美聯儲官員講話依然鷹派


    亞特蘭大聯儲行長博斯蒂克周四凌晨再次發表偏鷹派講話,稱美國經濟運行“相當良好”;而另外兩位美聯儲官員的講話也偏向鷹派。


    克利夫蘭聯儲主席梅斯特表示,美國股市“長時間”跌勢和風險增加將開始對美國經濟構成壓力,不過沒有跡象顯示經濟將陷入衰退。


    達拉斯聯儲主席也稱,美聯儲不再需要刺激美國經濟,美聯儲應繼續升息至少兩次,但可能是三次,然后再評估是否有必要進一步升息以抑制經濟增長


    另外,美聯儲經濟狀況褐皮書顯示,因關稅導致原材料成本增加,美國制造商稱不得已上調價格,美國經濟似乎正以溫和至適度的步伐成長,諸多行業的企業報告勞動力短缺。


    提醒:目前美聯儲方面有關的消息還是偏向繼續加息,這可能在中線對金價形成壓制。


    ④美國會選舉臨近,前總統奧巴馬、希拉里和CNN收到疑似爆炸裝置


    美國國會選舉還有不到兩周時間,警方截獲了送往前總統奧巴馬和前民主黨總統候選人希拉里,以及美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)紐約分部的疑似爆炸裝置。這些個人和機構都是右翼批評人士針對的目標。美國特勤局稱,周二(10月24日)晚些時候發現了寄給克林頓夫婦的包裹,周三早些時候又發現了寄給奧巴馬的包裹,都是在例行的郵件篩選過程中發現的。當局表示,奧巴馬和克林頓夫婦都沒有任何危險。在總統特朗普的領導下,美國兩極分化十分嚴重,可疑包裹事件將政治競爭的緊張程度帶到一個新高度。


    該事件目前影響還比較中性,但需要繼續保持關注。

    ?

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