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    您的位置:首頁 > 黃金 > 感謝2016年飛出的“黑天鵝” 金價錄得四年以來首次

    感謝2016年飛出的“黑天鵝” 金價錄得四年以來首次

    2017-11-02 17:17:55 作者:admin 點擊:

    而彭博調查的26位分析師預計,2017年黃金價格可能上漲12%。美國的貿易保護主義政策和中美之間可能發生的貿易戰爭也會推高黃金價格。2016年上半年黃金開啟40年以來的最強漲勢,但黃金價格從7月的高位開始下跌,投資者減少了黃金持有量,這主要是因為美國經濟增長和利率上升使得股票等其他資產更加吸引力。黃金ETF在10月份的持有量創下3年來高位,但金價在11月8日后開始連續33個交易日下跌,創造2004年以來的最長跌勢。

      特朗普時代標志著黃金進入避險資產的新時代。2016年政治、經濟的“黑天鵝”頻出,幫助黃金4年以來首次年度增長。而彭博調查的26位分析師預計,2017年黃金價格可能上漲12%。

      黃金的看漲前景來源于多個方面:潛在的貿易戰爭可能會損害中美之間的關系,英國脫離歐盟的復雜程序將帶來不確定性,法國、德國和荷蘭的大選可能會出現民粹主義的興起,還有美國候任總統特朗普的“推特治國”也引發了擔憂。GoldCore的董事長奧尼爾(Mark O’Byrne)表示:

      “特朗普每發出的未經過濾的140個字符都可能使美國和其最大的貿易伙伴制造緊張的局勢。市場已經被英國脫歐所震撼了,未來歐洲的多國選舉可能再次加強黃金避險資產的地位。我認為明年金價可能漲到1600美元/盎司。”

      溫伯格領導的德國商業銀行的分析師認為,如果歐洲各國的選舉中反對派占優,投資者對黃金的需求將會增加。而且,美國的貿易保護主義政策和中美之間可能發生的貿易戰爭也會推高黃金價格。而黃金公司Yamana Gold的首席執行官馬龍(Peter Marrone)表示:

      “越來越多的國家出現了民族主義傾向和孤立主義傾向,這將會造成地緣政治和社會經濟的波動,帶來不穩定和風險。”

      2016年上半年黃金開啟40年以來的最強漲勢,但黃金價格從7月的高位開始下跌,投資者減少了黃金持有量,這主要是因為美國經濟增長和利率上升使得股票等其他資產更加吸引力。而如果2017年美聯儲加息三次,特朗普也實現承諾推動基礎設施支出增加、刺激經濟增長,那么金價承壓的可能性也將增大。

      黃金ETF在10月份的持有量創下3年來高位,但金價在11月8日后開始連續33個交易日下跌,創造2004年以來的最長跌勢。高盛分析師此前表示,ETF的進一步拋售會加劇黃金價格下跌。新加坡中國銀行的經濟學家Barnabas Gan是彭博追蹤到的第三季度對金價預測最準確的分析師,他預測2017年底金價將跌至1100美元/盎司。

      資產管理公司Insch Capital Management的首席執行官克魯登(Christopher Cruden)管理著3.5億美元的基金,他的黃金基金今年增長達39%。他認為,無論上漲還是下跌,黃金每一波行情都開啟瘋狂的走勢,這是不合理的,但投資者可以利用這種不合理性,只要“站對了邊”,就可以獲得巨大的收益。

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