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    美油本月驟跌10%,EIA來襲恐推波助瀾

    2018-10-31 17:10:06 作者:admin 點擊:

    周三(10月31日),亞盤盤中,油價回升。油價周二觸及兩個半月低點,因受供應上升及全球貿易擔憂拖累,國際能源署(IEA)官員的講話并沒有幫

    周三(10月31日),亞盤盤中,油價回升。油價周二觸及兩個半月低點,因受供應上升及全球貿易擔憂拖累,國際能源署(IEA)官員的講話并沒有幫助油價復蘇。

    國際能源署署長比羅爾在能源會議上表示,在全球經濟活動放緩之際,高油價正在損害消費者,并可能削弱燃料需求。國際能源機構是西方世界的能源監督機構。


    截止當前,美油報66.47美元/桶,日內漲幅0.44%,此前曾觸及兩個半月低點65.36美元;布倫特原油報67.36美元/桶,日內漲幅0.55%。

    全球石油需求增長面臨兩大下行壓力。一個是高油價,在許多國家,它與消費者價格直接相關。第二是全球經濟增長勢頭放緩。


    美油本周開始下跌近2%,原因是自市場擔心美國開始對伊朗石油實施制裁以來,市場在8月和9月上漲了太多。美國WTI原油在9月份上漲5%,8月份上漲1.5%之后,10月份的跌幅接近10%;ICE布倫特原油繼9月上漲7%、8月份上漲逾4%之后,10月份預計將下跌8%。

    原油制裁進入倒計時

    自從特朗普5月份取消了與伊朗的核協議,并恢復對世界第四大石油出口國的制裁以來。隨著11月4日原油制裁的逼近,人們一直懷疑他是否能像他承諾的那樣,將伊朗的石油銷量降至零。

    盡管美國即將對伊朗石油出口實施制裁,但來自俄羅斯、美國和沙特這三大原油生產國的原油產量在9月首次達到3300萬桶/日。這表明石油供應依然充裕。


    沙特阿拉伯本月早些時候承諾提高石油產量以抵消預計由美國制裁造成的伊朗出口下降,而俄羅斯上周六(10月27日)也表示該國沒有理由削減產量。


    石油市場開始關注世界許多地區可能出現的供過于求和庫存問題。鑒于制裁對伊朗石油生產和出口能力的影響仍不可知,在11月4日之前我們可能會看到一些投機性買盤出現。

    API原油庫存增幅再度超預期

    凌晨時段,美國石油協會(API)公布的數據顯示,美國截至10月26日當周API原油庫存超預期增加569萬桶,預期增加366.7萬桶;汽油庫存減少346萬桶;精煉油庫存減少308萬桶。數據公布后,美油跌幅收窄至1%。

    知名金融博客零對沖表示,API原油庫存超預期增加569萬桶,且是連續6周錄得增加。不過,精煉油和汽油庫存降幅均超預期,這兩項庫存下降抵消了原油庫存增加帶來的利空影響,并提振油價短線收窄跌幅。


    據悉,為降低石油生產面臨的安全風險、進一步提高生產潛力,尼日利亞目前正在大力開發海上油田,有望使原油產量增加約10%。包括雪佛龍公司、殼牌公司在內的石油巨頭也都開始投資開發尼海上油田項目,預計到2022年尼原油產量將創新高。


    另一方面,美國EIA庫存報告也將于日內晚間公布。若美國原油庫存再度增長,這將是連續第六周庫存增長,從而進一步抵消下周美國制裁伊朗給油市帶來的供應緊缺風險,不利油價上行。

    注意:上述資料不應被視為金融市場上投資建議或指導性意見,僅作為閱讀參考使用。金融交易有風險,投資需謹慎。

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