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    油市利空危機彌漫,油價料創兩年多最大月跌幅

    2018-10-30 13:33:14 作者:admin 點擊:

    周二(10月30日),亞盤盤中,油價延續跌勢。周一油價下跌,因俄羅斯表示其產量將保持高位,對全球經濟的擔憂使得原油價格有望實現自2016年

    周二(10月30日),亞盤盤中,油價延續跌勢。周一油價下跌,因俄羅斯表示其產量將保持高位,對全球經濟的擔憂使得原油價格有望實現自2016年中期以來的最大月度跌幅。在美國對伊朗出口實施制裁之前,油市缺口有限。

    截止當前,美油現報66.90美元/桶,日內跌幅0.21%;布倫特原油現報76.94美元/桶,跌幅0.56%。油價自10月初達到四年來的高點以來,已經下跌了約10美元。美油期貨合約本月下跌約8.5%,為2016年7月以來最大月度跌幅。

    美伊制裁仍是市場焦點


    美國將于11月4日生效對伊朗出口的制裁,這在很大程度上損害伊朗和全球原油供應。但美國原油庫存連續五周增加,且鉆井數量也持續增長,美國國內庫存增加近3000萬桶,令油市供需不足的擔憂大幅減弱。再加上美股近期疲軟,更推動油價下行。

    特朗普5月宣布退出伊核協議,并恢復對伊朗出口制裁以來,人們一直懷疑他是否能像他承諾的那樣,讓伊朗的石油銷量降至零。


    這種悲觀情緒在上周末得到了強化,此前伊朗石油部表示,作為應對制裁的戰略的一部分,它已開始向伊朗的私人煉油商出售原油,用于出口。


    盡管美國要求各國企業停止從伊朗購買原油,但歐盟和印度等其他主要進口國正在尋找繞過美國制裁的辦法。與此同時,特朗普政府擔心俄羅斯會購買伊朗的石油,并將其作為自己的石油出售。


    除了對制裁影響的不確定性之外,OPEC和俄羅斯在庫存不斷增加的情況下,是否會減產的問題上發出了好壞參半的信號。


    石油市場的極度悲觀情緒導致對沖基金和其他主要投機者上周大幅削減了對美國原油的看漲押注,降至一年多來的最低水平。

    俄羅斯與OPEC意見相左


    俄羅斯能源部長亞歷山大諾瓦克上周六表示,俄羅斯沒有理由凍結或削減其石油產量水平,并指出全球石油市場可能面臨赤字風險。當俄羅斯開始談論保持高產量時,甚至可能因為供應緊張而需要增加產量,這會帶來一些拋售壓力。


    OPEC產油國與俄羅斯為首的非OPEC產油國在6月同意提高石油供應,但OPEC上周隨后表示,由于全球庫存增加,OPEC可能不得不重新減產。

    股市壓力導致油價走低


    由于對企業盈利的擔憂以及對貿易緊張局勢升級對經濟增長的影響的擔憂,全球股市的巨額虧損令原油和銅等工業商品受到沖擊。標準普爾500指數有望發布自2010年5月以來最差的月度表現。

    受強勁的美國消費者支出數據的支持,美元指數仍維持高位,美元走強往往使得以美元計價的商品對其他貨幣持有者來說更加昂貴,這也是不利油價走高的因素之一。


    全球股市壓力導致能源價格走低。由于需求前景變得更加不確定,基金經理已將原油期貨和期權的看漲頭寸連續四周下調至2017年7月以來的最低點。


    在美國對伊朗的制裁生效之前的幾天,伊朗五大客戶中有三個(印度,中國和土耳其)正在抵制美國方面關于終止石油采購的呼吁,他們認為全球沒有足夠的供應來取代伊朗石油出口。

    注意:上述資料不應被視為金融市場上投資建議或指導性意見,僅作為閱讀參考使用。金融交易有風險,投資需謹慎。

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