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    【知乎分享】投行交易員的分析方法與野路子有何區別?

    2017-11-14 09:38:17 作者:admin 點擊:

    高盛等頂級投行的自營交易員大都擁有高學歷,他們的分析方法和交易手法同野路子有什么本質區別?而投行可以由交易員,數量分析師和程序員協同作戰。例如在商品交易領域,退出現貨交易之后,信息優勢大大降低,投行相對于商品交易商往往是吃虧的一方。隨著電子交易的興起,歐美頂級投行的自營機構與野路子的差距在急劇減少,而在中國國內,已經沒有任何區別。

      本文轉自知乎社區(原文出處),版權歸原作者所有,轉載請聯系原作者并注明出處。

      問:高盛等頂級投行的自營交易員大都擁有高學歷,他們的分析方法和交易手法同野路子有什么本質區別?

      

      首先要理解的是:投行的交易本質上是一門生意而不是技術;而普通人的交易是技術而不是生意。在一級市場上,掙錢幾乎全靠生意。即使在二級市場上,大部分的錢也是靠生意而不是靠技術。和學歷相比,機構,人脈的關系更大。

      在經濟分析,財務分析方面,投行相對于普通人并沒有絕對的優勢。一個刻苦鉆研的,認真對企業做調研的,對經濟作研究的,或者有內幕消息的個人投資者,完全可以做的比投行好。但是以下六個方面,投行相對于個人投資者是有優勢的:

      第一、利潤優勢,做市業務可以產生一部分穩定的利潤。雖然不如自營盤大,但提供了一個利潤緩沖。

      第二、信息優勢。作為做市商,會頻繁和買方通話,看到大量的資金流動,對市場情緒掌控比一般人好。也容易接觸到更多的企業高管。

      第三、渠道優勢。有很多利潤很高的業務是柜臺交易,例如固定收益衍生品。普通人接觸不到。分析方法和交易手法告訴你也沒用,因為你接觸不到這個市場,沒有人賣給你。

      第四、壟斷優勢。在一些市場,幾家大投行聯合起來對市場有一定的控制能力。這個普通人也是做不到的。你不在這個圈子里的話,知道也沒有用。

      第五、模型優勢。一些復雜的模型憑個人單打獨斗是研發不出來的。而投行可以由交易員,數量分析師和程序員協同作戰。

      最后、風險管理優勢。個人投資者的風險管理能力往往較差。投行相對來說控制的比較好。而且投行業務多,即使某一塊業務出事往往也能撐住。比如摩根大通的倫敦鯨事件,光大烏龍指事件,機構都撐下來了。私募和個人抗風險能力差,一旦出大事就往往要清盤,極端的甚至會跳樓。

      當然投行也不是萬能的。例如在商品交易領域,退出現貨交易之后,信息優勢大大降低,投行相對于商品交易商往往是吃虧的一方。所以,對于普通個人投資者的能力來說,最好的方法是按照巴菲特和彼得林奇的教導認真研究企業或商品,而有較好編程能力和數學基礎的投資者可以嘗試在交易所市場上用數量方法研究。這兩種方法相對不依賴機構優勢,對于個人投資者是比較可行的。

      補充一下:下圖是德銀做的世界上最大10家投行掙錢業務的劃分。(當然題主問得是自營盤,我這里說的是整個業務部門,有點跑題了,只是給大家分享一些知識)個人投資者能接觸到的一般只有股票(Cash Equity) ,商品和外匯,只是左下角和左上角的三個圓。其余的大量市場是普通個人投資者很難接觸到的,希望給大家一個直觀印象。

      

      

      隨著電子交易的興起,歐美頂級投行的自營機構與野路子的差距在急劇減少,而在中國國內,已經沒有任何區別。原因是這樣的,早年間我拓展歐美市場交易通道的時候,發現在歐美個人被鄙視的不是一般的鄙視那么簡單,就算你幾億美金早就超過有的自營機構和基金的規模了,一樣會被非常不公平的對待,所以歐美的機構通道絕對是有很多優勢的,而且在DMA出現前還有券商中間報價截胡的問題,對賭交易的問題,不要以為歐美監管什么時候都很完美。

      年初的瑞朗的交易,提前半年準備,之所以獲利,就是因為相關工作做的扎實,你們知道就算到現在很多投行和機構還找不到真正的交易對手是誰,當時費了好大勁的,當然是合規前提下。這么算來,大型機構實際上有時候不但已經沒有了優勢,還因為頭寸通常過大而導致了劣勢,這個同樣也是倫敦鯨的原因以及很多時候所謂頂級投行自營被對沖基金獵殺的原因之一。

      另外,首先需要明確的是各大機構除非極個別純量化自動化的,一律都有人工交易員,且非常普遍。這個你只要一看Bloomberg終端的使用率就知道了,這些交易員本身并沒有那么神秘,大家都是工作,更多的身份,更像是兩種,一種是操盤手,另一種是投行交易員。就跟國內商業銀行投行部門的交易員一樣,總行有終端,分行有的交易得撮合電話或者終端機線路聊天室敲定。而多年來所謂的自動化交易到百分之多少,實際上是這沒有回事兒。

      首先,相當多的人工訂單需要進行拆單發送,這個拆單策略,比如國內的機構版的下單軟件里面的批量下單和拆單,被華爾街叫做算法交易,當然現在因為暗池和一些衍生品和規則的變化,訂單類策略變得復雜了,但是絕大部分機構并沒有想象的那么復雜和水平那么高,處于正常水平。統計的時候會發現這些訂單都是機器通道如果是分通道的交易所和券商的話。

      再者,除去做市商的訂單,有一些從事高頻交易的機構實際上是充當了“做市商”的角色,所以訂單流動性很大很多除非特殊情況還得保持市場里繼續有,是不是過度交易這里先不說,但是如果簡單的按照訂單數量比例來進行統計,顯然顯得好像自動交易訂單很多。之前也有很多利用這些偽做市商的策略,因為“做市商”策略通常沒那么聰明。

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