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    股指上漲邏輯未變 后續首選低吸布局春季行情

    2018-09-22 14:09:45 作者:admin 點擊:

    提要滬指構筑3250底部之后,市場風險偏好改善成為推動指數上行的重要力量,漲價概念受到青睞,IH合約或表現更強。本周權益市場上行放緩,滬指站穩3400點之后有所停歇。目前

      提要

      滬指構筑3250底部之后,市場風險偏好改善成為推動指數上行的重要力量,漲價概念受到青睞,IH合約或表現更強。

      本周權益市場上行放緩,滬指站穩3400點之后有所停歇。目前來看,短線調整可定性為急漲后的補跌,催生市場上行的主邏輯并未發生變化,后續低吸布局春季行情仍是首選。

      市場風險偏好改善

      首先回顧元旦首周的躁動行情,從基本面維度進行分析,指數上行主要有三方面支撐:1.宏觀層面,財新PMI超預期,經濟韌性預期難以打破。同時資金利率顯著下滑,產品贖回、監管考核等負面因素對于盤面的沖擊降至低位,可以發現無論是融資市場還是陸港通,資金年后均有入場意愿。2.原油大漲再度引發通脹遐想,這一跡象可以從CFTC持倉報告中發現蛛絲馬跡。無論是COMEX銅還是NYMEX原油非商業凈多頭寸均達到近一年相對高位,除大宗商品自身供需結構改善以外,稅改落地推升美基建加速預期也是外資布局大宗商品的另一大緣由。國內2018年棚改規模超預期,資源股成為近期盤面的一大亮點。3.成本推動型通脹的邏輯正在兌現,近期白酒、啤酒先后提價,暗示利潤由上游原材料傳導至下游消費的邏輯正在形成,在2018年去產能情況尚不明確的情況下,一部分資金繼續堅守消費。

      綜上所述,權益市場目前處在風險空窗期,監管政策擾動暫時不會引發全局性調整,在滬指3250底部構筑完畢之后,偏好改善成為推動指數上行的重要力量,漲價概念成為資金關注的重點板塊。

      中期向上趨勢不改

      在指數連續上行之后,止盈盤對于盤面的擾動加大,10日市場盤中異動即是明證。若分析資金面對于盤面的實質影響,一方面,陸港通每日仍保持30億元左右的凈流入,在外圍氛圍偏暖的背景下,外資對A股始終有正向貢獻,另一方面,元旦之后追漲效應顯著改善,近日漲停個股數量在40只附近浮動。外資、游資的介入抵消了獲利盤的擾動,盤面相對堅挺。

      對于1月中下旬行情,應重點關注三方面:一是地方兩會動態,從歷史經驗來看,地方兩會往往伴隨概念炒作,如2017年新疆基建規模超預期成為當時的熱點,因而可繼續關注房屋租賃、自貿區、雄安新區、去產能、地方混改等政策中是否暗藏預期差。二是繼續跟蹤監管動向,302號文進一步確認了全年監管趨嚴的基調,疊加稅改落地間接推升美國10年期國債收益率飆漲,后續固收市場異動可能成為權益市場的潛在隱患,是否引發股債聯動需密切關注。三是繼續跟蹤漲價概念的確定性,去年12月CPI、PPI表現平平,但從食品分項回暖,交通等細分指標新高可以看出,漲價概念的確定性增強。考慮到當前人民幣升值、冬季限產的大環境仍利好漲價概念,一季度之前資源股仍有波段機會。

      中期維度,我們延續偏樂觀的思路,短線由于止盈盤的擾動,帶來盤面不穩。在流動性無憂的情況下,市場依然具備繼續上攻的基礎。風格方面,繼續推薦權重股作為底倉,加碼消費股、周期股,成長股在盈利改善前暫時無趨勢性機會,因而IH合約在三大期指中稍強。

      (作者單位:中信期貨)

      

    ?

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