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    美指行情逆轉跳水40點,歐元空頭加速回補跳漲70點

    2018-09-22 14:09:44 作者:admin 點擊:

    周二(5月22日)歐洲市場開盤后,美元多頭獲利了結,美指一改亞洲時段漲勢,短線跳水40點。受美元走弱影響,歐元兌美元加速空頭回補,一舉扭轉亞洲時段頹勢,短線拉升近70點,

      周二(5月22日)歐洲市場開盤后,美元多頭獲利了結,美指一改亞洲時段漲勢,短線跳水40點。受美元走弱影響,歐元兌美元加速空頭回補,一舉扭轉亞洲時段頹勢,短線拉升近70點,刷新三個交易日高點1.1827,但后市或受意大利政局拖累;受歐元走勢帶動,美元兌瑞郎回吐亞洲時段漲幅,創近三周新低0.9945。

      歐元兌美元5分鐘走勢圖:

      圖片點擊可在新窗口打開查看

      截止5月15日當周的IMM凈投機倉位數據顯示,美元凈頭寸自3月中旬以來首次重回多頭領域,不過倉位規模非常溫和。周一美指受中美停止貿易戰以及美國財長姆努欽言論(一個強勁的美元匯率在長期對美國經濟利好)的提振一舉突破94關口,但因拋盤嚴重最終收低于93.55。

      周二美元兌一籃子貨幣繼續回調,離開五個月高位94.058,在普遍上漲后稍事休整。美元之前上漲是受美國公債收益率上升及美中貿易緊張局勢緩解的提振。

      澳大利亞聯邦銀行指出,全球經濟走強將導致美元貶值,其他主要央行繼續收緊貨幣政策將支持其他貨幣,美國經常帳赤字將進一步擴大,因為減稅將推升美國進口。

      該行還稱,最近提振美元的利差不太可能持續支撐美元,美聯儲加息預期上升空間有限。期貨市場目前認為該央行2018年還將進一步加息兩次,每次加息25個基點,我們同意市場的預期。

      而周二歐洲時段,受美元走弱影響最大的貨幣則為歐元。匯通網認為,一方面歐元多頭在上周進一步下跌,空頭加速補倉,這使得歐元兌美元上周下跌了近1.5%,進而使得本周空頭平倉壓力加劇,空頭獲利了結觸發了匯價大幅反彈。

      另一方面,當地時間5月21日,意大利五星運動黨與聯盟黨領導人正式向總統馬塔雷拉遞交了新政府總理候選人名單。意大利總理熱門人選--法學教授朱塞佩·孔戴有望成為新一屆聯合政府總理。新政府的誕生,將導致意大利中右聯盟宣告解體,這也為歐元注入了一定活力。

      不過,市場對意大利財政計劃的擔憂也正不斷增長。評級機構惠譽周一已經發出警告,民粹主義聯盟對意大利的信用狀況構成了風險,馬塔雷拉總統還對國家財政和意大利人的儲蓄表示擔憂,并呼吁今天與議會領導人舉行會議。

      北京時間周四2:00將公布美聯儲5月會議紀要,料短線引起美元波動,值得投資者關注。美聯儲5月會議上,FOMC強調稱通脹目標是對稱的,并表達了對通脹高于目標的一些容忍度。鑒于上次的利率決議沒有新聞發布會,本周的美聯儲會議紀要則顯得更為重要,如果美聯儲再次強調“對稱”通脹,美元可能會面臨一定的壓力。

      道明證券外匯策略部門北美主管Mark McCormick曾表示,“市場非常關注對稱措辭,這是美聯儲允許讓通脹高于聯儲通脹目標的代碼。如果通脹進一步上升,而美聯儲對此沒有回應,那么就是基本上保持經濟中的寬松政策(規模)不變。這對美元是負面的,因為美元需要更高的實際利率在本質上從世界其它地方吸引資金。”

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