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    黑色系商品 “金三月”行情還有嗎?

    2018-09-22 14:09:41 作者:admin 點擊:

    ⊙記者宋薇萍○編輯谷子當投資者還在憧憬3月黑色系商品行情之時,前兩個交易日的走勢分歧猶似一盆冷水。在基建投資預期和環保限產政策雙作用下,黑色系商品的“金三月”行情難道沒了

      ⊙記者 宋薇萍 ○編輯 谷子

      當投資者還在憧憬3月黑色系商品行情之時,前兩個交易日的走勢分歧猶似一盆冷水。在基建投資預期和環保限產政策雙作用下,黑色系商品的“金三月”行情難道沒了?

      期貨業協會數據顯示,2月全國期貨市場成交量為207.63百萬手,同比增長2.72%,環比增長13.33%;成交額為12.77萬億元,同比增長34.75%,環比增長12.67%。數據還顯示,今年1-2月,全國期貨市場累計成交24.11萬億元,同比增長6.30%。

      今年以來,跟蹤國內大宗商品期貨綜合表現的文華財經商品指數上漲5.85%至157.66點。其中,黑色系商品依然表現強勢,鐵礦石期貨漲幅超過27%,螺紋鋼漲幅超過20%,焦炭漲幅超過17%,焦煤漲幅超過12%。

      現貨市場,據生意社監測,大宗商品價格指數BPI開年來呈階梯上行態勢,目前已登上900點大關,較周期內(注:周期指2011年12月1日至今)最低點上漲了36%,創近三年以來的新高。與此同時,大宗商品供需指數(BCI)也收獲了八連陽走勢。

      “從前兩月市場表現看,2017大宗商品牛市基調已成。”生意社首席分析師劉心田認為,流動性充沛和通脹因素仍在發力。隨著地方投資大暴發成為市場新動能,以鋼鐵、建材為代表的與基建投資相關的商品成為近期市場龍頭。

      海通期貨證券研究主管高上也對記者表示,近期黑色系大幅上攻,一是受1月PPI上升影響,二是春季基建旺季臨近,三是全國各地投資規劃高企,對市場需求產生了強烈預期。

      在市場預期“金三月”行情可期之時,3月的首個交易日,黑色系商品呈現分化走勢,焦煤焦炭強勢上漲,主力合約漲幅都在5%以上;鋼材期貨則表現疲弱。3月2日,螺紋期貨小幅反彈,主力合約收盤上漲1.05%,熱卷、鐵礦則繼續微幅下跌,跌幅分別為0.25%和0.07%。

      現貨市場,據生意社監測顯示,3月2日鋼材板塊商品價格繼續全線下調,連跌兩日。

      在生意社鋼鐵分社何杭生看來,昨日鋼材期現價格回調,一方面是對2月底大漲行情的技術性回調;另一方面則是受到河北唐山地區鋼廠限產影響,市場成交放緩。此外,京津冀等周邊市場則由于環保檢查也出現冷清行情,因此引起市場價格下跌。

      “鋼材昨日表現應該是暫時性回調,金三月行情依然可期。” 何杭生說。他認為,目前市場仍存在以下利好,一是沙鋼等主流鋼廠在3月上旬建筑鋼材價格上普遍上調100元/噸,市場信心穩定。第二,截至2月24日,全國五大鋼材社會庫存結束13連增行情,出現10萬噸的小幅跌勢,說明市場去庫存化或再次啟動。

      目前市場的一大關注熱點是環保限產升級。記者獲悉,3月1日零點至15日24點,唐山市鋼企燒結機(含堅爐)限產50%,焦化完成排污治理,出焦時間延長至36小時,軋材企業除天然氣等清潔能源為熱源的全部關停。

      “這意味著,唐山鋼廠限產呈現升級趨勢。結合此前基建投資預期和當前的環保限產政策,3月份鋼材市場供應緊缺預期會加大,市場整體看漲情緒將繼續升溫。” 何杭生認為,尤其是作為中間產品的鋼坯,因其產能和產量有限,市場需求本身就存在較大缺口,預計鋼坯價格會繼續走高。

      也有業內人士認為,目前鋼市的一大利空因素就是礦石庫存的再創歷史新高(13081萬噸),這對其價格上漲帶來更大壓力,也對鋼價的成本支撐產生動搖。

      

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