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    鐵合金企業期現結合穩經營

    2018-09-22 14:10:09 作者:admin 點擊:

    在昨日舉行的第八屆中國鐵合金產業大會上,記者了解到,國內硅鐵企業經過前幾年的虧損,目前已扭虧為盈,錳硅企業今年也有利潤,但利潤微薄。與此同時,鐵合金期貨受到越來越多產業客

      在昨日舉行的第八屆中國鐵合金產業大會上,記者了解到,國內硅鐵企業經過前幾年的虧損,目前已扭虧為盈,錳硅企業今年也有利潤,但利潤微薄。與此同時,鐵合金期貨受到越來越多產業客戶的關注。

      鐵合金行業利潤情況改善

      “十一假期后,硅鐵行業扭虧為盈,行業利潤普遍在1000元/噸,大廠利潤甚至達1800元/噸。錳硅的成本在6800元/噸左右,行業利潤在100—300元/噸。”一位企業人士告訴期貨日報記者。

      “8月初某大型企業硅鐵出現負庫存現象,現貨價格快速上漲,9月不少工廠門口出現排隊拉貨情況。長期在產的企業優勢明顯,依然靠長協客戶和渠道優勢獲得了不錯的利潤。”該企業人士說。

      今年的硅鐵需求好于前兩年,在寧夏浩瑞森實業有限公司總經理劉黎明看來,這與取締“地條鋼”有一定關系。取締“地條鋼”后,轉爐和電弧爐煉鋼產量增加不少,但轉爐煉鋼的增量沒有彌補“地條鋼”取締后的缺口,因此鋼價上漲,相關原料需求增加。

      “雖然鋼廠限產,但硅鐵需求不減反增,短期呈現供應缺口擴大趨勢,供應端產能釋放緩慢;錳硅需求受鋼廠限產影響較大,加之錳礦價格堅挺,后續到港的期礦價格也可能偏高,錳硅減產預期增強。”華信萬達期貨鐵合金研究員李娟告訴記者,短期來看,硅鐵價格仍存上行空間,錳硅繼續下跌空間有限。

      據記者了解,自2014年開始,隨著國內硅鐵產能的迅速擴張,產能過剩情況顯現,硅鐵行業洗牌悄然開始。目前來看,有電價優勢的青海部分企業仍具備一定競爭力;甘肅地區除西北騰達、酒鋼宏電之外,其他企業基本退出硅鐵行業,但小企業會根據市場狀況隨時開停爐。內蒙古及陜西神府地區產業鏈比較健全的企業情況還可以,其他小規模企業對市場的影響很小。“受制于高電價,寧夏80%的硅鐵企業和產能已基本喪失了市場競爭力。”劉黎明說。

      統計數據顯示,硅鐵目前開工產能內蒙古地區16萬噸左右,青海地區9萬噸左右,陜西神府地區4.5萬噸左右,寧夏地區7.5萬噸左右,甘肅地區3萬噸左右,普通硅鐵總產能在40萬噸左右,較9月前減少近2萬噸。

      劉黎明認為,由于寧夏的電力等成本居高不下,硅鐵開工率長期維持高位的可能性不大。由此可以判斷,硅鐵價格底部將不斷抬升。但如果冬季采暖期鋼廠如期減產,需求繼續趨弱,硅鐵企業庫存累積,大型企業渠道受到威脅,市場主流售價有繼續小幅下調的可能。因此,后期硅鐵市場漲跌還要看需求端和供應端的減產力度,以及硅鐵原料的價格走勢。另外,后期寧夏地區電價政策是否發生變化也值得關注。

      期貨成為企業穩定經營的法寶

      長期以來,硅鐵和錳硅定價都是鋼廠招標,硅鐵和錳硅企業沒有定價權。但隨著鐵合金期貨成交量增加、市場逐步活躍,期貨市場的定價能力也在增強。在市場供需格局變化過程中,鋼廠定價模式逐步轉變,貿易商操作更加靈活,價格波動頻率加大。

      據了解,今年7月硅鐵期貨成交放量,主力合約移倉的過程中近遠月合約價差較大,近月合約商品屬性增強,與現貨價差較小,遠月合約金融屬性是產業客戶關注的焦點。

      硅鐵和錳硅都是鋼材原料,是黑色系中的小品種,偶爾也會受到黑色系其他商品走勢的影響。今年國慶節假期前,黑色系品種多重利空兌現,出現集體下挫,也使得鐵合金價格反彈面臨壓力,但與其他品種相比,鐵合金期價還比較抗跌。

      對于現貨企業利用期貨工具穩定經營,劉黎明有著較為豐富的經驗。“一是期現緊密結合,二是現貨企業應適度參與,三是套期保值應嚴格遵守紀律,四是不忘初心、趨勢操作、控制倉位、管好資金。”劉黎明告訴記者。

      實際上,期貨投資并不簡單,每天需要收集大量信息,即使方向正確,還要考驗投資者的心理承受能力。每天的浮盈浮虧,會帶來心態的不斷變化,能否操作好需要很好的定力和心理承受能力。“有了現貨貿易作依托,可以從實際的成交情況,獲得最真實和及時的現貨信息。有生產能力、固定銷售渠道的工廠和有現貨采購、銷售渠道的貿易商,在期貨投資方面底氣更足。”劉黎明說。

      另外,劉黎明建議,企業要靈活運用期貨工具套期保值,不要“死套保”。如果之前市場相對平靜或較弱時期,在遠月合約已做套保,到交割月前一兩個月,市場強勢持續,銷售順暢,尤其是銷售價格已經超過或預期即將超過套保價格,應立即果斷平倉,安心銷售現貨,當銷售訂單超過生產能力時,甚至可在期貨上反手做多,保證訂單的充足供應。當市場長期低于成本價格,生產或庫存產品出現虧損,可以減產甚至停產,在期貨盤面做多接貨,保證自己現貨渠道的通暢。

      

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