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    鐵礦石價格令產業巨頭犯難

    2018-09-22 14:10:01 作者:admin 點擊:

    去年下半年,國際大宗商品價格回暖,尤其是第四季度鐵礦石價格上漲,從2016年年初噸價不到40美元上漲至目前的超過92美元,令多個礦業巨頭財務報表飄紅。力拓集團首席執行官夏

      去年下半年,國際大宗商品價格回暖,尤其是第四季度鐵礦石價格上漲,從2016年年初噸價不到40美元上漲至目前的超過92美元,令多個礦業巨頭財務報表飄紅。

      力拓集團首席執行官夏杰思日前在北京透露,力拓凈利潤從2015年虧損8.66億美元大幅升至2016年凈利潤46.17億美元,營收為338億美元。

      不過對于今年鐵礦石的價格,巨頭們卻有些無法把握。夏杰思認為,在影響鐵礦石價格的諸多因素中,中國的因素最為重要,特別是中國礦山產量將影響鐵礦石價格,而這個產量難以把握。

      四因素影響鐵礦石價格

      力拓、必和必拓、淡水河谷并稱為鐵礦石三巨頭,也是中國鐵礦石的主要供應商。目前,中國鐵礦石八成以上需要進口,去年中國進口了10.24億噸鐵礦石,同比增長7.5%。

      夏杰思對媒體表示,力拓去年的營收中有43%來自中國,這讓中國因素在鐵礦石價格中發揮重要作用。

      夏杰思認為有四個因素能夠影響鐵礦石價格,其中三個與中國相關。

      首先是中國的經濟狀況。夏杰思對中國的經濟發展前景并不擔憂,因為中國政府依然大力支持對基礎設施建設的投資。

      其次是中國鋼鐵行業的改革。中國正在執行“去產能”政策,2016年對鋼鐵行業消減了6500萬噸過剩產能,今年計劃再削減5000萬噸過剩產能。夏杰思認為,去產能會促使中國鋼廠更傾向于選擇像力拓這樣高品位的礦石,對力拓來說是利好。他走訪了很多中國鋼廠,發現中國目前的高爐利用率保持在70%~75%。“如果一些小型、效率低、污染高的高爐被關停,而大型高效的高爐在運轉,這對實際產量影響并不是很大”。

      再次是中國國內礦山產量,這也讓巨頭們無法把握。夏杰思稱,幾年前,中國國內的礦山產量較大,每年有約4億噸的產量。“現在據我們估計可能是2.7億噸。鐵礦石價格上漲,(中國)礦山會不會恢復生產?我們很難預測中國的產量到底是升還是降。”

      最后是市場供給。淡水河谷史上最大的鐵礦石項目——年產量9000萬噸的s11d項目投產將為今年的市場供應帶來增量。夏杰思預計,今年一共將有4000萬噸的新增鐵礦石投入市場。但由于s11d投產的消息早已被知悉,所以市場已經消化了這個擴產消息,市場供給方面對鐵礦石價格的影響不會特別大。

      調整業務應對挑戰

      礦業寒冬仍未完全度過,力拓也在調整業務架構應對挑戰。除了將生產經營的重心向銅、鋁業務傾斜,力拓還在推進鉆石下游市場的開發合作,希望在中國銷售更多的鉆石,提升集團的現金流。

      據了解,阿蓋爾礦是力拓鉆石集團旗下兩大在產鉆石礦之一,全球超過90%的粉鉆及紅鉆產自該礦區。力拓集團每年向全球供應1800萬克拉鉆石,大約獲得1億美元的營收。在這1800萬克拉鉆石中,大部分就產自阿蓋爾礦。

      對此,夏杰思對國際商報記者指出,如果要對鉆石市場做一個評價的話,力拓應該不會只對中國市場持謹慎態度,而是對全球市場都持謹慎態度。“我覺得鉆石市場會有比較好的前景,因為鉆石開采的過程非常難,從勘探發現鉆石,到真正把它開采出來做成鉆石,平均需要30年的時間,所以不管是它的稀有度還是開采成本,都是非常高的。”

      夏杰思認為,鉆石在短期內可能會有一些供給過剩的狀況,但是因為其開采難度較大,新的鉆石礦產又沒有被發現,所以從長遠來看,力拓看好鉆石市場。

      據悉,由于阿蓋爾礦將于2020年資源枯竭而關閉,力拓正在積極推進戴維克鉆石礦的擴產計劃。預計2018年第四條生產管線將投產,這將對因阿蓋爾關閉而導致的鉆石產量下降做出一定補充。

      【免責聲明】本文僅代表作者本人觀點,與本網站無關。本網站對文中陳述、觀點判斷保持中立,不對所包含內容的準確性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保證。請讀者僅作參考,并請自行承擔全部責任。

      

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