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    市場人士:鋼鐵業利潤有望向焦化行業轉移

    2018-09-22 14:09:51 作者:admin 點擊:

    1月20日,由國信期貨等主辦的“私募宏愿,國信相伴”主題活動在深圳舉行。與會嘉賓就2018年上半年宏觀市場研判表示,受供給側改革影響,部分商品價格處于較高水平,預計商品價

      1月20日,由國信期貨等主辦的“私募宏愿,國信相伴”主題活動在深圳舉行。與會嘉賓就2018年上半年宏觀市場研判表示,受供給側改革影響,部分商品價格處于較高水平,預計商品價格快速上漲可能性不大。細化到黑色系,鋼材利潤有望部分轉移到焦化行業,雙焦價格重心或將上移。

      國信泰九輿情掘金委員會委員劉錦表示,2015年以來,在行政性去產能、去庫存的推動下,商品市場供需失衡已得到明顯改善,未來可能會逐步減少行政性干預,轉向諸如環保、信貸政策等操作,來進一步鞏固去產能、去庫存等供給側結構性改革的效果。

      “對于商品市場而言,在流動性中性適度的條件下,商品價格將主要取決于供需匹配情況。目前來看,環保限產等操作的短期沖擊可能較大,但卻并不具備持久沖擊的基礎,加之此前去產能力度較大,部分商品價格已經處在較高水平,預計2018年商品價格繼續快速上漲的空間不大,建議把握進出時點,謹慎操作。”劉錦說。

      去年,在供給側改革的背景下,黑色系商品期貨勢頭洶涌,2018年走勢如何呢?在國信期貨研發部主管徐超看來,宏觀方面,2018年美元有望再次加息3次,這將給其他國家貨幣政策帶來壓力。全球經濟整體溫和復蘇,局部過熱,中國與美國經濟領漲全球。國內在房地產調控的背景下,基建投資方面將承擔更多責任,建材系市場維持重心上移。

      他認為,受到噸鋼利潤維持高位及鋼材市場供給側改革穩步推行影響,黑色產業鏈利潤將繼續維持樂觀水平。同時,鋼材利潤有望部分往焦煤及焦化行業轉移,雙焦價格重心上行,限產及復產等季節性機會增多,對沖套利機會將會不斷出現。“全年焦炭價格核心運行區間預計在1600—1850—2500元/噸附近,其中,1850元/噸為平均價格,1600元/噸為支撐位,2500元/噸為壓力位,焦煤價格核心運行區間預計在1000—1250—1500元/噸附近。”

      劉錦表示,對股票市場而言,總量性行情難現,但與經濟轉型升級以及效率提升密切相關的行業或企業具有較大的投資價值,建議關注以下機會:其一,去杠桿中的投資機會。一方面在控制宏觀杠桿率的要求下,股票融資的需求有望快速增加,另一方面杠桿率的有效控制也有利于提高企業效率、釋放企業活力,增強企業盈利能力,建議關注去杠桿中的國企改革機會。其二,戰略布局消費結構升級中的成長型行業龍頭。隨著我國社會主要矛盾的改變,消費升級有望成為主導經濟結構調整的重要力量,加之補短板還會進一步釋放出高質量的消費需求,建議戰略性布局醫療、教育、休閑娛樂、智能家居等高成長行業龍頭企業。其三,戰略布局制造業轉型升級的機會。目前我國制造業總體依然處在產能出清的階段,但隨著人工智能、信息化時代的到來,制造業有望步入全新發展時代,加之國家的制造業強國戰略,制造業有望在不久的將來迎來真正的發展機遇,建議可重點關注5G、芯片、人工智能等新興產業的龍頭企業。

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