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    您的位置:首頁 > 貴金屬 > 貿易擔憂再度升溫,黃金或再次讓位美元 2018-10-30 09:45:14

    貿易擔憂再度升溫,黃金或再次讓位美元 2018-10-30 09:45:14

    2018-10-30 13:50:43 作者:admin 點擊:

    周二(10月30日)亞市盤初,現貨黃金窄幅震蕩于1230關口附近,因為市場對中美貿易局勢的擔憂情緒再度升溫,多數大宗商品表現不佳,黃金的避險

    周二(10月30日)亞市盤初,現貨黃金窄幅震蕩于1230關口附近,因為市場對中美貿易局勢的擔憂情緒再度升溫,多數大宗商品表現不佳,黃金的避險需求也有所減弱,美元進一步獲得避險資金的青睞,而且美聯儲的加息前景也給美元提供支撐,金價短線下行風險有所增加。

    ★基本面消息:

    ①貿易局勢擔憂再度升溫

    有報道稱,若中美國家領導人下個月在G20峰會的會談不能緩解貿易戰局勢,美國考慮對所有剩余中國進口商品征收關稅。清單將包括前幾輪關稅戰中沒有覆蓋的進口商品,根據去年的進口數據,可能涉及2570億美元商品。盡管還未做最終決定,但美國官員正在為這一情況做準備。


    另外,美國方面周一(10月29日)決定切斷美國對一家中國的半導體制造商的零部件、軟件和技術產品出口。美國還表示,對歐盟在世界貿易組織(WTO)推進針對美國和鋁關稅的訴訟“深感失望”,并敦促歐盟成員國認真考慮雙方更廣泛的利益;繼續就美國關稅爭端舉行聽證會,將損害世貿組織的生存能力。


    受這些消息影響,隔夜美國股市由漲轉跌,而且是由2%的漲幅轉為1%左右的跌幅;道瓊工業指數收跌0.99%;標普500指數跌0.66%;納斯達克指數收跌1.63%。標普500指數從歷史高點的跌幅接近11%,險些確認2018年二度進入修正區間。


    小編提醒,盡管貿易局勢的擔憂升溫會催生一些避險情緒,但過去近半年的時間內,這種擔憂情緒都令資金涌入美元,因為擔憂需求前景,大宗商品普遍表現不佳,金價也隨之走弱,包括商品貨幣;如今對貿易的擔憂情緒,金價面臨的下行風險再次增加。


    ②德國總理默克爾宣布不再擔任執政黨主席,政治生涯擬在2021年落幕;


    德國總理默克爾周一表示,將在她目前的第四個德國總理任期屆滿后卸任,她將不再擔任德國基督教民主黨(CDU)主席,預示著歐洲政壇的默克爾時代即將結束。默克爾自2000年后就擔任基民黨主席,自2005年起擔任德國總理。該黨在地方選舉中接連受挫后,默克爾宣布了這項決定。


    小編提醒,該消息對歐元有所拖累,進而給美元提供了一些上漲動能,金價也部分受到壓制,不過影響可能相對短暫。


    ③意大利政府考慮削減2019年預算赤字的方法


    一位意大利政府消息人士周一表示,如果2019年政府預算中的兩項主要成本證明低于預期,那么節省下來的資金可能會用于削減預算赤字。這位消息人士稱,任何未使用的資金都可能被用于將預算赤字降至相當于國內生產總值(GDP)2.4%的政府目標之下。


    兩名政府消息人士稱,意大利議會將于周三(10月31日)開始討論該國政府2019年的預算草案。該預算案須在今年年底前得到議會兩院的批準。一位消息人士稱,該文件將于周二送交議會各委員會進行初步討論,另一位消息人士稱,文件將于周二或周三送交各委員會。


    小編提醒,該消息暗示意大利的預算問題存在緩和的可能性,市場的擔憂情緒略略微有所減弱,歐洲股市隔夜也曾企穩反彈,輕微利空金價。


    ④美國PCE數據符合預期,但也有隱患


    隔夜數據顯示,美國9月核心PCE物價指數同步增長2%,維持在近六年半的最高水平;美國9月個人支出環比增長0.4%,為連續第七個月增長。


    小編提醒,這兩個數據都基本符合市場預期,短線影響較小;中線有望給美聯儲繼續繼續提供支撐,不過有分析人士指出,因薪資增長溫和,美國7月收入錄得一年多來最小增幅,暗示當前的支出步伐不太可能持續。


    美國商務部發布的報告還顯示,美國家庭可支配收入的增幅為15個月來最低,儲蓄降至去年12月以來的最低水平。有跡象表明,特朗普政府1.5萬億美元減稅計劃的刺激效果已經見頂。利率上升,以及股市暴跌后家庭財富縮水也給支出蒙上了陰影。

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