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    衍生品工具解決有色金屬行業痛點

    2018-09-22 14:09:14 作者:admin 點擊:

    在環保政策加碼、供給側改革深入推進的背景下,有色金屬行情后期將如何演繹呢?12日,由華泰期貨主辦、中船重工物資貿易集團廣州有限公司協辦的“華泰期貨有色金屬產業風險管理論壇

      在環保政策加碼、供給側改革深入推進的背景下,有色金屬行情后期將如何演繹呢?12日,由華泰期貨主辦、中船重工物資貿易集團廣州有限公司協辦的“華泰期貨有色金屬產業風險管理論壇”在廣州舉行,與會嘉賓對有色金屬未來行情持較為樂觀的態度。

      在凱豐投資有色研究員高山看來,今年以來,供給側改革從黑色系品種擴大到有色金屬,對需求一定有影響,但影響有限。對于銅和鎳而言,今年廢料政策影響較大,邏輯上會持續很長時間。

      華泰證券(601688,股吧)有色金屬行業首席分析師李斌看好鋁的走勢,他認為鋁價上漲周期沒有結束。“供給側改革疊加限產,運行產能預計從2017年7月的3750萬噸減至3550萬噸左右,年需求在3450萬噸,供需維持緊平衡。2018年新增產能預計200萬噸,對應3700萬噸的年需求預期,緊平衡將是常態。國際市場供不應求局面短期也難逆轉。”他如是說。

      華泰期貨高級分析師吳治君在會上表示,鋁經歷了多年產能和庫存積累,未來或呈現振蕩偏強走勢。“鋁期貨1994年掛牌上市,是較早上市的品種,實力強大的產業資本在市場中占很大比例,他們不僅有現貨,而且多年來與國際市場深度融合,可以說既理性,經驗也十分豐富。”

      中船重工物資貿易集團廣州有限公司總經理助理廖樺澤認為,銅產業內部分化加劇,強者越強、弱者越弱的格局正在形成。擁有資金和技術資源的企業需求還是比較強勁,但是下游企業發展愈發困難。他相信下游終端企業技術成熟之后,行業還會迎來爆發期。“我們公司對銅的需求在增長,其實行業對銅的需求是剛性的,只是終端品種和技術升級沒有達到要求。在供給側改革背景下,下游公司要不斷進行技術升級改造,提高生產效率、降低成本,從而滿足新的需求,往高附加值轉變。”廖樺澤說。

      絕對金額大、毛利低、價格波動大、成本高是有色金屬貿易企業的傳統特點。據中船重工物資貿易集團廣州有限公司有色一處期貨業務負責人何智勇介紹,五大痛點始終貫穿于傳統有色貿易生態鏈:在交易環節貿易層級過多,交易成本居高不下;物流冗長且分散,缺乏規模效應,面臨貨價在途風險;支付環節不成體系,信用體系脆弱,缺乏履約保障;資金周轉方面,生產商面臨先投入、后產出的資金缺口,貿易商面臨賒銷帶來的周轉資金不足和應收賬款回籠困難問題;整個貿易鏈條都面臨交易違約、市場價格波動、貨權歸屬和融資信用等風險。

      據期貨日報記者了解,有色金屬行業痛點有待解決,利用衍生品是不少貿易商的解決方法之一。其中,利用基差風險代替價格風險是最普遍的方式。

      中船重工物資貿易集團在基差交易上有著多年的經驗。何智勇將基差結構的影響因素總結為五方面,分別是庫存變動情況、現貨市場交易情況、保值商頭寸移倉情況、期現套利情況和進出口情況。而基差的驅動因素主要體現在兩方面,一是現貨端需求驅動,二是價格預期驅動。

      在有色金屬領域,近年來銅基差交易的市場有效性越來越強,銅基差交易的利潤水平也隨之收窄。相對于其他有色金屬,銅期貨參與度較高,月間價差交易機會較少。銅的基差交易是較為重要的交易模式,但是能做好的企業往往不多。在這種背景下,傳統的基差交易貿易商該如何轉型?面對越來越薄的利潤,中游企業如何生存?

      廖樺澤說,公司的交易大部分集中在價差交易。特別是今年,這項業務資金回報率維持在30%—50%。“銅金融屬性強,市場參與群體較廣,風險套利利潤很小。我們的做法是,做整條銅產業鏈上的套利,將套利品種延伸到非標銅、廢銅、銅鎬、廢銅鎬等。另外,公司更傾向與對基差不敏感、更關注價格的客戶進行合作。”

      值得一提的是,場外期權也為現貨企業和貿易商提供了風險管理新思路。不少參會的現貨企業表示,場外期權的靈活性、容錯性,以及資金利用的高效性和操作的簡便性,對于實體企業開展風險管理有較大的吸引力,實體企業對場外期權的認知度和接受度也越來越高。

      

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