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    恒指期貨期現套利策略應用

    2018-09-22 14:09:57 作者:admin 點擊:

    目前很多投資者開始將目光轉向,與港股相關的有哪些?投資者可以參與的股指策略又有哪些呢?我們以期貨為代表,著重介紹在港股市場上的恒指期貨期現套利策略。恒指期現套利的方法恒指

      目前很多投資者開始將目光轉向,與港股相關的有哪些?投資者可以參與的股指策略又有哪些呢?我們以期貨為代表,著重介紹在港股市場上的恒指期貨期現套利策略。

      恒指期現套利的方法

      恒指期貨期現套利思路和中金所股指期貨的期現套利并無二致,即股指期貨和現貨指數間的基差具有一定的平穩性,在一段時間內會圍繞一定的均衡值出現波動。一旦期現價差偏離均衡值時,套利者可以選擇做空價格相對高估的一邊,同時做多價格相對被低估的另一邊,并在價格回歸均值后平倉獲利的一種操作思路。

      具體策略方面,目前市場上大部分套利方案均基于統計套利,這里我們介紹以技術指標布林帶進行的簡單均值回歸策略。其主要思路為通過對恒指期貨當月合約的基差波動規律進行分析,獲得其合理的基差均值,并以此確定套利的平開倉線進行套利。其中,基差均值選取過去20個交易日的移動均線(MA20),而開倉線則選用偏離當前移動均值一個標準差的位置。同時,考慮到一定的風險控制,選取基差偏離移動均值0.1個標準差作為平倉線。

      需要注意的是,在具體進行恒指的期現套利時,現貨部分由于不能直接買賣指數,我們將跟蹤恒指的ETF作為現貨,進行恒指ETF期現套利。目前,跟蹤恒指的ETF指數基金品種相對較多,除直接在香港上市交易的ETF外,內地也有一些跟蹤恒指的ETF。

      恒指ETF正向期現套利

      從基差波動的方向上來看,期現套利可以分為兩類,分別為正向期現套利和反向期現套利。對于正向期現套利策略,當基差(恒指期貨減現貨指數)大于其開倉線時,可進行賣出恒指,買入現貨指數ETF的操作;待基差回歸至平倉線時,進行賣出現貨,同時買平股指期貨進行平倉。

      這里我們首先對恒指ETF正向套利進行介紹。ETF指數基金部分,我們采用了在聯交所上市的盈富基金作為現貨。一方面,盈富基金對于恒指的跟蹤效果較好,且費用較低;另一方面,采用港元計價的ETF排除了人民幣兌港幣之間的匯率波動因素。其中,一手恒指股指期貨約等于49000股盈富基金(每手500股)。

      表為恒指ETF正向期現套利舉例

      以2017年4月為例,在2017年4月24日收盤時,恒指基差為52.52大于開倉線,因此依據策略的開倉規則,在收盤前以收盤價進行買入49000股ETF,同時賣出1手恒指期貨。之后持有期現組合至2017年4月26日,收盤時基差為-7.43,收斂至平倉線下方,此時對組合進行賣出49000股盈富ETF,并同時買平1手恒指期貨進行平倉。從組合收益來看,在不考慮交易費率的情況下,兩天的持倉周期可以獲得650港幣的無風險套利收益。

      恒指ETF反向期現套利

      對于恒指ETF的反向期現套利,其操作方向與正向期現套利正好相反,即當基差小于開倉閥值時,進行賣出現貨買入期貨的操作,并同樣待基差收斂后進行平倉操作。我們以2017年3月的一次反向期現套利機會進行舉例。在2017年3月2日收盤時,恒指基差為-89.07小于反向開倉線,因此在收盤前以收盤價進行買入1手恒指期貨,并融券賣出49000股ETF。在持有1天后,基差回歸至-2.72,此時觸發平倉線,因此進行買入ETF現貨,同時賣平恒指期貨進行平倉。在不考慮交易費率的情況下,1天的持倉周期內一共可以獲得450港幣的無風險收益。

      表為恒指ETF反向期現套利舉例

      期現套利的注意事項

      在具體進行期現套利的操作中,還有其他包括期貨保證金、手續費細節、持倉限制、港股的賣空(融券)操作、ETF申購贖回等一些細節需要投資者進行關注。

      首先,恒指期貨端的操作上,投資者需要注意期貨保證金、手續費以及持倉限制等細節。其中,期貨保證金方面,恒指股指期貨有初始保證金和維持保證金兩類,并會定期進行調整。同時,按照不同的交易類別,例如單邊、跨期以及跨商品組合,恒指期貨對應的保證金額度也均有不同。因此,投資者需要關注目前操作策略下的保證金水平,并預留一部分期貨端倉位,以應對期貨端價格變動下的保證金不足風險。手續費方面,在進行恒指期貨交易時,手續費主要包括三部分,分別是交易所費用的每手10港幣、證監會征費的每手0.54港幣,以及相應的交易傭金。而在持倉限額方面,港交所對期貨所有合約月份持倉合共對沖值以10000為限。

      其次,針對恒指期現套利中的ETF指數基金的操作,我們需要對ETF的操作細節予以關注。從ETF申購贖回層面來看,以盈富基金為例,其最少的申購贖回單位為一百萬個基金單位(或其整數倍)。因此,在不滿足申購贖回的條件下,投資者可考慮在二級市場進行買賣交易。而特別針對恒指ETF反向期現套利,由于開倉時需要賣空現貨ETF,這需要投資者對港股ETF的融券交易細則等方面信息有所關注。從港交所相關的證券借貸規例和賣空規則來看,對于融券交易也較為嚴格。一般來說,在進行反向期現套利操作時,需注意賣空的證券是否已納入港交所可進行賣空的指定證券名單。同時,在進行融券交易過程中,從借入人所提供的可隨時變現抵押品不得少于持倉市值的105%來看,也要求投資者對其融券賬戶進行合理的風險控制。

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