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    10月31日外匯交易提醒

    2018-10-31 17:09:24 作者:admin 點擊:

    外匯市場主要貨幣對昨日(10月30日)整體波動不大,美元指數周二升至16個月高位,因美國10月消費者信心指數升至18年高位;歐元兌美元下跌,因

    外匯市場主要貨幣對昨日(10月30日)整體波動不大,美元指數周二升至16個月高位,因美國10月消費者信心指數升至18年高位;歐元兌美元下跌,因歐元區經濟第三季度增速低于預期;美元兌日元上漲,因交易商正在為定于周三舉行的日本央行貨幣政策會議做準備。CNN恐懼與貪婪指數周二(10月30日)讀數10,表明市場處在極度恐懼狀態,較上一交易日漲3點。周三(10月31日)需持續關注這些事件的影響,另需關注日本10月央行政策利率、歐元區 10月未季調CPI、9月失業率、美國 10月芝加哥PMI、截至10月26日當周EIA原油庫存變動。此次預計美國截至10月26日當周EIA原油庫存將減少。

    美歐經濟基本面冰火兩重天;美元指數在周二延續強勢,日內最新數據顯示,盡管面臨諸多不利因素,美國10月份消費信心指數仍升至18年來峰值,這與歐洲深陷多重危機,以致于德國總理默克爾被迫放棄連任計劃的狀況,真是天壤之別;雖然,投資者對美國中期選情前景存有疑慮,但是美指上行趨勢仍然穩健。上破日內阻力點97.00之后,指數有望進一步挑戰97.87這一2017-18年跌幅的61.8%回撤位。而只要守穩10日均線96.21,則美元上行趨勢就依舊穩固。

    歐元區GDP低迷推動歐元繼續下跌,后市前景繼續悲觀;歐元兌美元在周二延續跌勢,雖然在紐市盤初一度受到空頭獲利了結盤助推反彈,但之后便再度承壓下行,失守1.1350關口,距離8月份的年內低點也只有一步之遙;日內發布的歐元區三季度GDP數據表現低迷,關鍵國家意大利的經濟增速更是再度降至零,這讓歐盟中央在預算爭執中處境更加尷尬。這與美國消費信心數據創多年新高的狀況,形成鮮明反差。因而,歐元匯價也繼續著近期一直以來的下行趨勢。此后歐元兌美元的最關鍵支撐在8月15日的低點1.1301,跌破后意味著匯價有可能在年內下探1.10關口。而只有在收復周一的反彈高點1.1415后,行情才有望暫時迎來喘歇的機會。

    英鎊兌美元短暫跌破1.27,脫歐前景黯淡令市場信心崩潰;英鎊兌美元在日內延續跌勢,一度短暫失守1.27關口,觸及自8月中旬以來兩個半月新低。自10月11日以來,英鎊兌美元在不到三周時間內已經累計貶值4%,原因在于在此期間與英國脫歐前景相關的基本面消息狀況不斷惡化,令市場情緒趨于恐慌;本周四,英國央行將發布政策決議,但考慮到脫歐風險及其已經開始對英國實體經濟造成的沖擊,市場普遍預測英國央行會一致壓倒性選擇按兵不動,并發布鴿派政策預期,這加劇了英鎊匯率的下行壓力。技術上來看,8月的低點1.2662尤為關鍵,一旦失守,恐慌性踩踏拋盤在“硬脫歐”預期下的涌現,可能下行通道進一步大開,并在年底之際推動匯價奔向1.20關口。

    重要經濟數據一覽

    時間區域指標前值
    08:01英國10月Gfk消費者信心指數-9
    08:30澳大利亞第三季度CPI年率(%)2.1
    09:00中國10月官方制造業PMI50.8
    11:00日本10月央行政策利率(%)-0.1
    15:00德國9月實際零售銷售月率(%)-0.3
    17:00瑞士10月ZEW投資者信心指數-30.8
    18:00歐元區10月未季調CPI年率初值(%)2.1
    18:00歐元區9月失業率(%)8.1
    20:15美國10月ADP就業人數(萬)23.0
    20:30加拿大8月季調后GDP月率(%)0.2
    21:45美國10月芝加哥PMI60.4
    22:30美國截至10月26日當周EIA原油庫存變動(萬桶)634.6

    11:00 日本央行公布利率決議,并發表經濟展望報告。(公布時間不是固定在11點,大多在11點前后)

    14:30 日本央行行長黑田東彥(HaruhukoKuroda)召開新聞發布會

    待定 意大利政府向議會提交預算法

    22:30 美聯儲舉行公開會議,討論修改大型銀行機構強化審慎標準框架的擬議規則

    全球投行觀點匯總


    野村證券:日本央行會議對美元兌日元料影響有限;

    ①野村證券分析師解釋稱,由于日本央行升息的預期降溫,美元兌日元對該央行操作調整的反應料更為溫和;

    ②在今年上半年,美元兌日元對日本公債市場的波動更為敏感,但自7月日本央行貨幣政策會議以來,這種敏感性已回歸至中性;

    ③今年第一季度美元兌日元對日本國債市場的高敏感性,解釋了利差與美元兌日元走勢之間的主要背離關系;

    ④然而,隨著日本央行貨幣政策正常化預期的降溫,美元兌日元跟隨利差走勢良好;美聯儲仍將于今年12月和2019年升息,因此我們認為美元兌日元的下行風險仍然有限;

    ⑤如果美元兌日元自當前點位回落,則較高的外匯對沖成本將增加市場對美元的需求。


    花旗:歐元年底前將持續因意大利問題承壓;

    ①今年年底前,意大利問題將持續限制歐元走勢;隨著意大利副總理迪·邁耶一面指責歐洲央行行長德拉基,一面又期待歐洲央行幫助穩定意大利債市,意大利將持續和歐洲其他國家對立;更重要的是,據消息人士透露,接下來贏大禮央行可能會對政府債券收益率升高對意大利銀行業的影響發布一份評估報告,而這可能會激發市場的擔憂;

    ②數據方面,本周需特別關注歐元區GDP數據和核心通脹數據。


    丹斯克銀行:歐元兌英鎊的風險偏向上行;

    ①丹斯克銀行首席策略師瓦特里·阿提(ValtteriAhti)指出,歐元兌英鎊應在0.8920附近遭遇初步阻力,而英國央行周四可能會發出強硬信號;

    ②歐元兌英鎊繼續走高,考慮到英國脫歐協議很可能最早無法在12月前達成,我們仍認為歐元兌英鎊短期內主要存在上行風險;

    ③從技術角度看,阻力位于0.8920(10月1日高點),我們預計,英國央行在周四召開的貨幣政策委員會(MPC)會議上,沒有必要向市場發出更加強硬的信號,盡管考慮到本周期薪資增速最快(年增長3.1%),仍有可能出現這種情況。

    注意:上述資料不應被視為金融市場上投資建議或指導性意見,僅作為閱讀參考使用。金融交易有風險,投資需謹慎。

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