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    10月30日外匯交易提醒

    2018-10-30 13:35:41 作者:admin 點擊:

    外匯市場主要貨幣對昨日(10月29日)整體波動不大,美元指數上漲,受助于美國9月消費者支出數據增長強勁;美元兌歐元周一上漲,逼近上周觸及

    外匯市場主要貨幣對昨日(10月29日)整體波動不大,美元指數上漲,受助于美國9月消費者支出數據增長強勁;美元兌歐元周一上漲,逼近上周觸及的10周高位,因有消息稱,德國總理默克爾不再尋求連任;英鎊兌美元在周一紐約時段再度承壓下跌,因美元指數走強,而英國脫歐議題卻仍無進展;CNN恐懼與貪婪指數讀數7,表明市場處在極度恐懼狀態,較上一交易日持平。周二(10月30日)需持續關注這些事件的影響,另需關注歐元區10月消費者信心指數終值、10月經濟景氣指數、第三季度季調后GDP。此次預計歐元區第三季度季調后GDP增速將放緩。

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    英鎊兌美元陷于1.28關口,前景仍然全面看空;英鎊兌美元在周一紐約時段開盤再度承壓下跌,因美國消費數據向好推動美元指數走強,而英國脫歐議題卻仍無進展。此后,在英國財相哈蒙德就預算前景發表講話時,英鎊匯價一度反彈20余點,但在其講話措辭無甚新意令市場情緒再度惡化后,英鎊兌美元跌回了1.28關口。分析人士指出,能否守穩1.28關口,對于英鎊后市走勢就因而顯得至關重要,這一點位若失守,即意味著下行趨勢仍舊穩固,后市可能測試1.2662低位,反之,則需匯價重新升破1.30關口,方可確認反彈趨勢重新確立。

    歐元暫時忽視近期經濟數據的疲軟表現,但意大利預算風險仍是反彈的重要攔路虎,歐元區10月PMI數據是個負面因素,但我們認為存在很大可能是暫時性因素造成了這樣的疲軟表現,但歐元似乎并未受到市場質疑情緒的提振,考慮到歐洲央行將近期因素的疲軟表現歸結于“動能不足,而不是衰退的體現”,我們相信歐元將會逐步走穩,不過若未來數據不能提供強勁支撐,意大利預算風險仍將成為歐元上漲的重要攔路虎。

    重要經濟數據一覽

    時間區域指標前值
    07:30日本9月失業率(%)2.4
    14:30法國第三季度GDP年率初值(%)1.7
    16:55德國10月季調后失業率(%)5.1
    17:00意大利第三季度GDP年率初值(%)1.2
    18:00歐元區10月消費者信心指數終值-2.7
    18:00歐元區10月經濟景氣指數110.9
    18:00英國10月CBI零售銷售差值23
    18:00歐元區第三季度季調后GDP季率初值(%)0.4
    21:00德國10月CPI年率初值(%)2.3
    22:00美國10月諮商會消費者信心指數138.4
    次日04:30美國截至10月26日當周API原油庫存變動(萬桶)988

    全球投行觀點匯總


    荷蘭國際集團:歐元兌瑞郎料逐漸下降;

    ①荷蘭國際集團(ING)分析師認為歐元兌瑞郎將逐步下降的至少兩個歐洲政治原因:(1)很難說意大利政府和布魯塞爾之間的僵局會在短期內得到解決,(2)英國退歐談判的解決方案最早不太可能在本周找到;

    ②另一方面,盡管瑞士宏觀經濟方面上周表現相當疲弱,但我們認為歐元兌瑞郎仍存在上行風險,部分由于瑞士與歐盟就市場等效性進行復雜談判而引發的負面新聞所帶來的悲觀前景;

    ③正如我們的經濟學家蒙彼利埃所指出的,達成協議的機會岌岌可危,如果明年初不能達成協議,瑞士金融體系可能陷入困境;歐洲混亂的政治通常意味著歐元兌瑞郎的貶值——但由于瑞士陷入混亂,匯價穩定在1.13-1.14附近看起來是最有可能的結果。


    荷蘭合作銀行:歐元兌英鎊存在上行風險;

    ①荷蘭合作銀行分析師認為,英國硬脫歐的風險正在上升,但仍認為達成貿易協議的可能性為50%;他們預計這一結果將導致英鎊升值,但他們警告稱,由于市場沒有考慮到交易風險,短期內英鎊可能承壓;

    ②對于英鎊的投資者來說,英國硬脫歐以及工黨上臺的風險,目前是一種難以接受但切實存在的風險;對于英鎊來說,這些風險中的任何一個都是負面的,都將是極其不利的;本周將舉行兩場非常重要的英國活動,英國央行將于周一公布年度預算,隨后將在本周晚些時候舉行常規政策會議;兩者都可能因政治不確定性而令英鎊黯然失色;英國央行會敏銳地意識到了英鎊所面臨的風險,并可能傾向于強化一些強硬言論,以限制下行風險;即便如此,英鎊目前仍可能處于非常危險的境地。


    三菱東京日聯:短線看跌歐元兌美元和美元兌日元

    ①三菱東京日聯討論了歐元兌美元和美元兌日元前景,短線均維持策略性看跌立場,認為未來數周歐元交投區間將下移至1.1200-1.1550,美元兌日元將跌至110.50-113.00;

    ②對于歐元而言,8月15日低點1.1301為下個重要關鍵支撐位,近期歐元的走軟體現了投資者們對歐元區經濟增長動能憂慮的升溫,此前歐元區公布的系列采購經理人指數(PMI)均不佳;投資者們將更密切關注本周公布的歐元區數據,當前仍不明確是否如系列領先調報告所顯示,核心經濟數據將走軟;

    ③在全球股市大跌的背景下,美元兌日元上行持續承受重壓,與此同時,匯價受到良好支撐,日元不大可能大幅反彈,CFTC持倉顯示日元空頭倉位持續建立,若美元兌日元倉位縮小而非擴大,那么風險就偏下行

    注意:上述資料不應被視為金融市場上投資建議或指導性意見,僅作為閱讀參考使用。金融交易有風險,投資需謹慎。

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