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    10月25日外匯交易提醒

    2018-10-25 17:42:12 作者:admin 點擊:

    外匯市場主要貨幣對昨日(10月24日)整體波動較大,美元指數上漲,因美股暴跌提振避險買盤,且歐洲數據顯示歐元區經濟增長可能普遍放緩,這變

    外匯市場主要貨幣對昨日(10月24日)整體波動較大,美元指數上漲,因美股暴跌提振避險買盤,且歐洲數據顯示歐元區經濟增長可能普遍放緩,這變相打壓了歐元。因美國股市普遍大跌引發VIX恐慌指數大幅飆升漲至25上方,為10月12日以來首次,凸顯市場避險情緒嚴重。今日(10月25日)需持續關注這些事件的影響,并需關注美國9月耐用品訂單月率、截至10月20日當周初請失業金人數、及歐洲央行公布利率決議。此次預計歐洲央行將維持利率不變。


    美元日內相對其他非美貨幣仍走勢強勁,美元指數再度刷新近兩個月以來的新高。歐元兌美元周三在歐元區諸多利空消息打擊下續跌,失守1.14關口,而這也使得匯價已運行于所有均線系統的下方,下行趨勢已清晰無疑。在歐洲市場局勢短期難有明顯起色的狀況下,歐元兌美元仍將面臨更多下跌壓力,后市將打開更大的下行空間。


    英鎊重挫失守1.29,脫歐不確定性令投資者更加噤若寒蟬;英鎊兌美元在周三延續跌勢,日內更是失守1.29關口,跌至自9月初以來七周低位。在英國脫歐談判無進展的背景下,資金正選擇進一步逃離。甚至英國央行官員早先已警告稱,在脫歐談判失利的狀況下,英鎊仍有巨大下跌空間。日內稍早,有媒體撰文稱,英國脫歐進程可能會拖延的上好幾年時間,雖然英國官方此后出面辟謠稱,不太可能出現脫歐過渡期“沒完沒了”的狀況,但市場信心卻受到驚嚇,預計后市英鎊會進一步下跌。

    重要經濟數據一覽

    時間區域指標前值
    14:00德國11月Gfk消費者信心指數10.6
    16:00德國10月IFO商業景氣指數103.7
    19:45歐元區10月歐洲央行主要再融資利率(%)0.00
    20:30美國9月耐用品訂單月率初值(%)4.4
    20:30美國截至10月20日當周初請失業金人數(萬)21.0
    20:30美國9月批發庫存月率初值(%)1.0
    22:00美國9月季調后成屋簽約銷售指數月率(%)-1.8


    07:00 美聯儲理事布雷納德(LaelBrainard)發表講話

    19:45 歐洲央行公布利率決議

    20:30 歐洲央行行長德拉基(MarioDraghi)召開新聞發布會

    全球投行觀點匯總


    荷蘭國際:將歐元兌美元的短線走勢預期從中性調整為看空;

    荷蘭國際集團分析師表示,歐元兌美元短期跌破上行趨勢線1.1465附近后,歐元下行動能開始釋放,日線上看該貨幣對自9月底高位1.1800附近開始已經不斷創造新低,因此將歐元兌美元的短線走勢預期從中性調整為看空,只要維持在1.1415下方就將延續跌勢,若跌破1.1301則將加大下行動能。


    巴克萊:意大利預算沖突持續,歐元兌美元漲勢受抑;

    ①巴克萊分析師稱,未來幾個月歐元兌美元將無法大幅升值,隨著意大利和歐盟之間的預算糾紛加劇,貨幣市場波動將加劇;

    ②巴克萊匯市策略師NikolaosSgouropoulos表示,在當前水平,許多負面因素已經被定價,而短期走勢主要取決于兩件事,第一個是歐盟與意大利政府預算討論的結果;第二,評級機構對意大利的評級報告;

    ③意大利政府的預算草案明確和有意背離了意大利去年7月作出的承諾,歐盟拒絕了意大利的預算案并不奇怪,不過大門并沒有關閉,歐盟經濟事務專員PierreMoscovici表示仍希望和意大利當局舉行積極的對話。


    法國興業銀行:宜低買歐元兌瑞郎,目標上看1.1950;

    法國興業銀行討論了歐元兌瑞郎前景,維持看漲立場,建議投資者們逢低買入,目前已建立多頭倉位,上行目標為1.1950;該行仍認為雖然當前冒險情緒較為脆弱,但仍宜買入諸如歐元兌瑞郎等交叉盤,如此前所解釋,若有必要瑞士央行將實施外匯干預和負利率的政策組合,極有可能削弱瑞郎的避險屬性,此外瑞郎投機倉位持續大致平衡,本周的外匯持倉數據確認了這一點,這將令瑞郎存在平倉相關的上行風險;歐洲央行貨幣政策立場可能轉為更顯鴿派,雖然歐元區政局不確定性提升,反之暗示較寬闊的貨幣政策分化將最終推高歐元兌瑞郎。

    注意:上述資料不應被視為金融市場上投資建議或指導性意見,僅作為閱讀參考使用。金融交易有風險,投資需謹慎。

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