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    美聯儲唱多經濟美股絕處逢生,沙特暴力增產油價跳樓

    2018-10-24 16:52:35 作者:admin 點擊:

    國際金融市場在周二再度迎來了動蕩不安的一天,日內,在困擾歐洲市場的兩大老大難問題,即意大利預算危機和英國脫歐僵局仍未進展的狀況下,

    國際金融市場在周二再度迎來了動蕩不安的一天,日內,在困擾歐洲市場的兩大“老大難”問題,即意大利預算危機和英國脫歐僵局仍未進展的狀況下,避險情緒一度繼續霸占市場主舞臺,在亞歐股市大跌后,美股道瓊斯指數在盤初曾恐慌性下挫逾500點,但在美聯儲官員和美股總統特朗普的措辭樂觀講話下,美股在尾盤收復了大部分的跌幅。市場對美國經濟仍持有信心。

    同時,日內黃金與原油市場的走勢則是出現天壤之別的分化。現貨金價在日內升至7月以來新高,距離突破1240美元的長期趨勢反轉關鍵目標位僅一步之遙,但同日,在沙特大幅增產預期之下,國際原油期貨價格盤中一度重挫5%,跌至兩個多月新低。

    歐洲“老大難”疑題難解,全球風險情緒崩盤唯金價暴沖;

    歐系貨幣自上周以來持續維持著在歐洲時段急漲之下再加倍下挫的走勢形態,因投資者往往在開盤之際對意大利預算問題和英國脫歐問題持樂觀情緒,但此后在發現此類問題料在日內仍無進展后,希望就會變為加倍的失望。而這一走勢周二又在英鎊身上重演。

    英鎊兌美元在周二歐洲時段再度在市場樂觀情緒助推下一度快速走強,一度升至日高1.3042,但旋即一如既往地在樂觀情緒消退的背景下回落,漲勢也因而只是曇花一現。日內,據愛爾蘭國家電視臺報道稱,歐盟將向英國首相特雷莎·梅提議建立英國關稅同盟,以解決圍繞愛爾蘭邊境后備方案問題的分歧,于是英鎊兌美元在報道公布后快速拉升。

    然而,很快,這就被英國國內強硬派堅決反對在海關政策上把北愛爾蘭和英國其他地區分而治之的訴求壓倒,英國首相發言人稱,任何讓北愛爾蘭處于單獨的關稅聯盟的條約都是不可接受的。這一表態令英鎊兌美元匯價再度轉頭下行,重返1.30下方。

    近日以來,在愛爾蘭邊境上的老大難困境,已讓英國脫歐局面遲遲沒有進展,與此同時,意大利預算僵局則在日內進一步惡化。在意大利方面周一拒絕修改赤字控制目標后,歐盟委員會周二毫無懸念地否決了該國的預算案,要求該國在“認真修改”后重新提交之。而意大利總理孔特則就此再度宣稱,占GDP比重2.4%的赤字控制目標是“底線”,無法做出退讓。于是,意大利國債收益率聞聲進一步飆升,市場對歐元區穩定性前景也更加憂慮。這令歐元匯價繼續承壓于1.15下方。由此帶來的避險情緒更是外溢到了全球市場。

    德國DAX指數為首的歐洲股市在日內紛紛跌至近兩年新低的水平,這同時也拖累美股三大指數大幅低開。而這再疊加上稍早以中國A股為代表的亞洲股市跌幅,連同美股重磅藍籌上市公司三季度財報意外不佳的狀況,一度拖累道瓊斯指數在開盤后不久便重跌500點,觸及自7月以來的最低水平。而在風險情緒惡化的極點的背景下,得利的自然是避險資產。美元兌日元在紐約時段盤初一度失守112關口,與此同時,現貨金價則一鼓作氣沖破之前始終未能突破的1233美元阻力位,升至距離1240美元這一關鍵的“牛熊分界點”只有一步之遙處。

    美聯儲官員集體出面安撫市場,特朗普暢談減稅新政第二季

    不過,在眼看另一場市場屠戮就將來臨時,美股卻在午盤后逐步反攻,收復了日內大部分跌幅,最終僅以小跌報收。一方面,投資者在進一步咀嚼了市場信號之后認為局面并沒盤面所顯示的那么糟糕,于是抄底買盤趁機入場。另一方面,美聯儲官員也在日內發表了措辭積極的講話,進一步打消了市場恐慌情緒。

    美聯儲官員博斯蒂克在日內的講話指出,美國經濟增長處于強勁的軌道之上,經濟基礎牢固,因而并不需要額外的貨幣寬松政策扶助,而他更是預計,之后于周五出爐的美國三季度GDP初值數據料進一步證明美國經擠已經處于“高速增長期”,這與一些市場人士此前的悲觀預測大相徑庭,這些人曾預計,受到惡劣天氣和貿易摩擦的影響,美國經濟可能已在三季度開始失速,GDP數據可能令人失望。

    另一位美聯儲官員卡普蘭也在隨后幫腔稱,美國就業市場已經達到了他本人“有生以來”所見到過的最佳水平。而當前美股高就業、低通脹的整體經濟局面,無疑是非常可喜的。因此,美聯儲在此后應當考慮“漸進”達到中性政策水平。在美聯儲官員的積極言論引導下,美股逐步回收跌幅,美元兌日元亦從低位反彈,而現貨金價則回吐部分漲幅

    而美國向好的經濟狀況,無疑對于執政的共和黨而言是相當有利之狀況。在距離11月6日中期選舉尚存兩周之際,民調顯示兩黨在眾議院多數議席爭奪戰中正陷于白熱化。政局前景的不確定性在一定程度上影響了投資者做多美元的積極性,令美元指數短線屢屢在96上方的關鍵阻力區間撞墻。但美股總統特朗普則似乎并不擔心選情的影響,他在日內的講話似乎暗示,無論中期選舉結果如何,他的“稅改2.0”——為中產階級再減稅10%的措施,連同他夢寐以求的“大基建”計劃都將在此后上馬。


    沙特拋出驚人增產計劃,原油多頭遭遇黑色一日

    給了特朗普如此底氣的狀況在于,在持續發酵一周之后,記者卡舒吉遇害案正以一種最微妙的結局走向收場——沙特方面正打算將其原油日產量大幅增加的方式來向美國示弱,以換取對方停止在卡舒吉案上的窮追猛打。沙特阿美石油公司的CEO稱,如有必要,可以在三個月內將產量提高至1200萬桶/日。

    考慮到沙特當前的產量在1050萬桶/日左右,該國若增產至1200萬桶,將能夠完全填補上伊朗受制裁斷供所帶來的供給沖擊,而這在過去幾個月間一直是油市投資者的一塊心病。于是,原本在開盤時分預測美股道指可能再迎千點血洗的投資者,萬萬沒有想到最終被血洗的卻是原油市場。美布兩油在日內雙雙跌逾4%,觸及兩個月新低。而尾盤時分,美國API原油庫存暴增988萬桶的狀況,更是給本來已經失血過多的油價又捅了一刀。

    投資者同時還在擔心歐洲局勢紛爭所帶來的潛在需求沖擊,這在伊朗斷供前景逐漸得到消化的背景下,已經令原油價格自10月初以來持續承壓。原本,投資者曾押注卡舒吉案引發的美歐與沙特交惡狀況,可能成為帶動油價反彈的又一只黑天鵝,但此事最終卻以沙特交出增產“投名狀”而走向收場,只可謂人算不如天算。

    注意:上述資料不應被視為金融市場上投資建議或指導性意見,僅作為閱讀參考使用。金融交易有風險,投資需謹慎。

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